Fish love snow and they love flies, so................

[midger]

Here's the deal. As everyone knows we are in for a "major" storm this coming week. Who knows how much snow the fish will get in their respective watersheds. To make it interesting, let's have a contest. I want you to predict the level of snow I'll have on my back deck by Friday, January 22nd at 6:00PM. I'll take 1/2 inch increments--like 22.5, 24 inchs, etc.

Predictions are for anywhere from 1 foot to 6 feet, depending on the report you believe, or we could just get 10-20 inchs of rain, again depending on who you believe.

Winner gets a flybox with 3 dozen flies. Second place gets 2 dozen flies. I'll tie them all during the "snow" we'll be getting, and take entries until midnight Monday--when the snow is supposed to start.

To give you an idea of what weather.com is forecasting:

Issued by The National Weather Service
San Diego, CA
1:49 pm PST, Sat., Jan. 16, 2010

... BIG CHANGES IN THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...

A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE FIRST STORM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND BRING RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY BY MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE HIGH MONDAY... AROUND 7000 FEET... SO SNOW WILL BE RESTRICTED TO RESORT LEVELS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT STORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES.

THIS ALL WEEK LONG EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST... AND 15 TO LOCALLY 25 INCHES ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. EVEN THE DESERT LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 5500 AND 7000 FEET WHICH WOULD CONFINE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS. AROUND 4 FEET OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEAVIEST LOCATIONS.

WITH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED... THERE IS HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING... ALONG WITH MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS... ESPECIALLY IN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE ROCK SLIDES ALONG MOUNTAIN HIGHWAYS... MAKING TRAVEL IMPASSABLE AT TIMES. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SOIL BECOMES MORE SATURATED.

WITH THE HEAVY SNOW FALL AMOUNTS EXCEPTED... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AVALANCHES FOR AREAS LOCATED BELOW THE STEEPER SLOPES OF THE HIGHER SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS.

THE STRENGTH OF THE JET STREAM DRIVING THESE STORMS IS OVER 200 MPH AND THE STORMS THEMSELVES WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ONSHORE IN QUICK SUCCESSION.

AS A RESULT THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS GALE FORCE OR HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. OVER LAND... DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF EACH STORM. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTS AND VALLEYS... WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MAY HAVE GUSTS 60 MPH OR HIGHER.

[Benny]

I'll say 43.5 inches of snow on your back deck

[buggravy]

Now we're talking. Very cool of you Mike. I'm in at 28.5 inches.

[midger]

Okay, we're on. I'll post the picks here so folks won't have to read all the posts and pick out the numbers. BTW, I'll even let the winner tell me what they fish--ie dries, streamers, nymphs, emergers. I don't do saltwater or bassbugs (for the purposes of this contest).

THIS ISN'T PRICE AS RIGHT, SO GOING OVER HAS NO IMPACT. CLOSEST TO ACTUAL AMOUNT WINS! The deck is completely devoid of snow today so no startup snow to account for. Just the new stuff

Here are picks:-------Inches of snow
1. Benny----------------43.5
2. Mike (DrCreek)---------37.0
3. Matt (Buggravy)--------28.5
4. PapaS (Jon)------------39.0
5. Ashtree1 (?)-----------24.5
6. Beachbum()-----------32.0
7. 209er ( )-------------34.0
8. flyaddict ( )-----------33.5
9. jbm78 ( )-----------32.5
10. MK4---------------- 1
11. fly_baby(Ava)---------30.0
12. Eric-----------------36.0
13.Castaway (Bill)--------33.0
14.Wildman(Jim)---------40.0
15.Frank---------------20.0
16.rayfound(Ray)--------54.5
17. RiverRat------------12.0
18. Autodave-----------36.5
19. seamus-------------26.0
20. fflutterffly(Ariel)------27.5
21. briansII(Brian)-------- 6.0
22. dirtyrider219(KC)-----18.0
23. Sasha---------------7.0
24. Rob909-------------49.5
25. SheriffJoe-----------56.0
26. meb(Mark)----------16.0
27. mtnguru (Chris)------13.0
28. duckdog------------25.0
29. 1mocast (Mark)------44.0
30. shootinghead--------42.0
31. tomsakai (Tom)------59.0
32. Justin--------------43.0
33. BradW-------------28.0
34. stanberry (Jon)------41.0
35. tyingfool-----------12.5
36. WanderingBlues-----27.0
37. rkfiske-------------38.0
38. DarrinTerry---------51.5
39. lucfish-------------20.0
40. DannyMcB----------17.0
41. tree catcher---------47.5
42. flybob--------------46.5




I'll post pictures every afternoon showing depths with the official drywall square (goes to 4 feet). BTW, My house sits at the 6200 foot level in the mountains.

[Papasequoia]

39. Please send the flies now; you have my address.

[ashtree1]

I say 24.5, I kinda wanna go higher but I'll say 24.5

[beachbum]

Interesting contest! 6,200 ft altitude, with the jet stream coming right at you, an lot of topical moisture to tap into. Will there be rain, to lessen the total? If it stays cold, it could be a big accumulation. Hmmmmmm....

Back to the estimate...all things considered, I will go with 32 inches, Mike.

It might be time to put wax on the powder skiis.

[209er]

Hey Mike,
I'll say 34" of the white stuff. 209er

[fly addict]

I'll play. How's 33.5 fit into the mix.

Mark

[jbm78]

Ill say 33.5 thats if everybody is welcome

[jbm78]

ill change mine to 32.5 since fly addict guessed that sorry about that

[midger]

Everybody is welcome to play. No dollars, no dinero, pesedas, drachma, pesos, nada. FREE.

Looks like the low 30's are filling up pretty well. Keep those guesses coming. These heavy winter snows will replenish the flows, help the water table, and give me and the snowblower a good workout.

[mk4]

$1. (1")

Are we going by the 'Price is Right' rules, where going over disqualifies you?

[fly_baby]

Hey, I'll "bite." Put me down for 30".

Ava

[Eric]

Mike I'll vote for 36 ins.. Looking forward to the pictures.
Eric